Poking Bears

Seeing as what has been unfolding in the Ukraine is a skip and a hop away from where our work in Romania is currently taking place, I’ve been keeping up with the developments, troop movements, and reactions to this entire drama.

In spite of all the stern warnings from pudgy politicians who’ve never seen a day of war, and the verbal tongue lashings from European and American officials alike about how inappropriate and politically incorrect this whole thing is, if Russia wants Crimea, Russia will have Crimea, then likely all of Ukraine and there is absolutely nothing save all-out war that will deter the Russians.

Having read my fair share of analysis on this topic, one point that every writer keeps making which is utterly wrong and has no basis in reality is that the Russian military is some weak, malnourished thing suffering from the rickets, barely breathing and in no mood for any sort of conflict.

To hear them tell the tale, the Russian army is comprised of fifteen pubescent teenagers with slingshots and blowguns.

‘No need to fear, their army is unmotivated, untrained, ill equipped, and a shadow of its former self,’ they say, even though all evidence points to the contrary.

This, I think is also the most important point of all the back and forth, because if indeed the Russian military complex is weak and emaciated, it would be in their best interest to attempt diplomacy. Try as our politicians might to spin it and say that the Russians are ready to sit down at the negotiating table and come to a peaceful resolution, there is no sign of this, and though some do not see the intent of these maneuvers, for those who have eyes to see they are very clear.

Before a conflict even begins, one must analyze a situation and ask the most fundamental of questions: which if any of the two parties has the stomach for a fight?

Simplistic as this might sound, it is also very telling in regards to the possibility or probability of negotiation, and of coming to a peaceful resolution.

From what I’m seeing, one of the parties involved not only has the stomach for a fight, but is relishing the idea of it, knowing that through the years while they’ve kept lean and hungry their enemies have grown soft, comfortable, and complacent.

In order to understand the true magnitude of what we are facing one must understand how the mind of one such as Vladimir Putin works. This is a cunning, disciplined, and forward thinking individual whose actions have purpose, and whose plans will remain cloaked and hidden until the last possible moment.

You cannot underestimate a man who’s been the head of the KGB, and has held the reins of power in a country like Russia for the better part of fourteen years. You don’t hold that kind of power in that kind of country if you are not ruthless, cutthroat, and extremely cunning. It just doesn’t happen!

The bear is awake, and poking it will just make it angry. It’s not as though God hasn’t warned, His people were just too busy to listen.

With love in Christ,
Michael Boldea Jr.